Kuwait: IEA Pessimistic

The IEA’s ‘Oil 2019’ medium term outlook to 2024 provides galling reading for Kuwait. The emirate’s oil sector is in a state of upheaval, with its 2020 targets lying in tatters ( MEES, 14 December 2018 ) amid an organizational overhaul ( MEES, 15 February ). Amid this, the IEA has now significantly downgraded its expectations for Kuwait crude production capacity.

The IEA last year forecast capacity reaching 3.07mn b/d this year, growing incrementally out to 2021, and then flatlining at 3.11mn b/d. This year’s report puts 2019 capacity at just 2.95mn b/d, and expects it to stay there out to 2024 at least.

Stagnation is at least still better than the IEA’s pre-2016 projections when it routinely expected Kuwaiti capacity to trend downwards. In 2014, the organization said that due to political opposition to IOCs operating in the upstream sector, “capacity looks set to decline by 415,000 b/d to 2.47mn b/d by 2019.” (CONTINUED - 308 WORDS)