When Opec and its allies gather in Vienna next week, the grouping’s fortunes will largely be dependent on factors outside of its control. Unable to influence US output or global demand trends, Opec+ talks will focus on boosting compliance among the laggards, and whether to act now to extend the production agreement beyond March.

Recent comments by Opec Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo highlight the extent to which Opec is banking on external factors balancing the market, rather than on its own actions proving critical. Despite Opec doing more than could have been expected of it this year, its efforts have still fallen short. (CONTINUED - 1258 WORDS)