Brazil: 2018 Output Flatters To Deceive

*At the start of 2018 Brazil was tipped to provide a key boost to global oil supplies as deepwater ‘pre-salt’ output continued to ramp up on the back of 2017’s record 2.62mn b/d.

*Things haven’t exactly gone to plan. Not only has output not risen, at 2.57mn b/d for January-November it is actually down by 2% year-on-year; every month since May has seen a year-on-year fall (see charts).

*This comes despite the continued, albeit delayed, start-up of deepwater FPSOs. Additions have failed to outpace declines at producing fields combined with a heavy maintenance schedule.

*Despite this, the IEA continues to predict a jump to average output of 3.1mn b/d for 2019 and an end-year figure of 3.3mn b/d. Longer-term, the IEA predicts 4.3mn b/d by 2030 and 5.2mn b/d by 2040, incremental gains second only those from the US (and just ahead of number three Iraq). (CONTINUED - 247 WORDS)


chart 2018 Output Is Down On 2017 Record Volumes Though Exports Hit A Record 1.14mn B/D*
chart Output Has Been Down Y-O-Y For Every Month Since May And Remains Over 100,000 B/D Shy Of Dec16's Record