Libya: Companies Crave Elusive Stability

Until mid-June Libya was looking at seven straight quarters of increased output. NOC had begun to hope the second half of 2018 would see a much-needed return to long-term upstream investment. But a return of ‘instability as usual’ has kicked such hopes into the long grass.

Libya has been working hard to get IOCs active in the country to commit to new upstream investment. But despite these companies’ 1H results showing their most buoyant Libya output figures in five years, renewed instability in the second half of June has put a major dampener on expressions on optimism.

The Repsol-led Sharara concession remained Libya’s top producer in Q2, with almost uninterrupted output at 300,000 b/d capacity, as in Q1. “Average production in Libya remained close to plateau of 38,000 net barrels per day” Repsol CEO Josu Jon Imaz told his firm’s earnings call on 26 July, adding that this equates to 300,000 b/d on a gross basis. Capacity was considered to be 340,000 b/d prior to Libya’s 2011 revolution (see chart). (CONTINUED - 1775 WORDS)


chart Libya's Crude Output Had Risen Steadily To A 5-Year High Before Mid-June Port Closures ('000 B/D)
chart Repsol-Operated Sharara Maintained 1H Output At Post-Revolution Capacity Of 300,000 B/D In 1H18 Before Mid-July Slump As Facilities Attacked ('000 b/d)
chart Output From Libya's Waha Concession: Bull Run Ended By Late-June Port Closures