Libya: Oil Output, Revenue Losses Mount

Renewed divisions between rival political and military factions in the east and west of Libya that have resulted in the closure of four key export terminals have cut output by well over 500,000 b/d versus May levels. A dramatic loss, though substantially less than the 850,000 b/d claimed by NOC. MEES crunches the numbers.

Libya’s state National Oil Corporation (NOC) has declared force majeure on crude exports from all but one of the crude export outlets in the east of the country. This follows the renegade ‘Libyan National Army’ (LNA) handing control of the ports to a rival Benghazi-based ‘Eastern NOC’. Given that only the Tripoli-based NOC headed by Mustafa Sanallah has international recognition, this has effectively meant a halt in exports from ports which account for over two-thirds of the country’s export capacity (see map).

As a result almost all crude output from the country’s Sirte Basin production heartland has been shut in: latest national crude output of 400,000 b/d is just 44% of the 970,000 b/d May figure. This output assumes that NOC-affiliate Sirte Oil Company (SOC) has completely shut-in its 60,000 b/d of production. NOC warned on 1 July that the Brega terminal had only five days’ of storage capacity. As of 6 July there was no sign of any loadings from the terminal.


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