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Opec cut crude production by 860,000 b/d in January, the largest monthly fall in nearly three years, but remains 570,000 b/d above its H1 2017 output target.
Oil prices have dropped around $1/B since the start of February but remain comfortably above $50/B, suggesting that the markets are comfortable enough with the level of compliance so far.
Opec set itself a collective output target of 32.5mn b/d at its 30 November meeting in Vienna. This came into force on 1 January for a period of six months. But measuring compliance has been complicated by the fact that this 32.5mn b/d includes Indonesia, even though the country had its membership suspended at the same meeting. Opec and others’ assessments of the organization’s output have since excluded Indonesia: on this basis Opec’s H1 2016 target is thus 32.5mn b/d less Indonesian output of around 720,000 b/d, that is to say 31.78mn b/d.
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