The fourth quarter surge in oil prices means Opec can head into the new year buoyed by the knowledge that it is guaranteed an attractive year-on-year revenue rise. Furthermore, the good cheer looks set to carry into 2018. MEES estimates the group’s revenues ought to rise nearly 30% this year to more than $575bn, and a further 11% to nearly $650bn in 2018 (see table).
This is based on an assumption that Opec members maintain broadly stable levels of compliance with the production agreement next year. The exceptions are continued output gains in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria, alongside incremental increases from Kuwait and the UAE. On the flip side, Venezuelan output will fall further. (CONTINUED - 925 WORDS)