Opec’s World Oil Outlook, released last month, projects that the organization’s share of global oil supply will hit 47% in 2040, up from 41% in 2016. Global oil production rises by 16% to 108.3mn b/d over the same period, meaning that Opec oil output is set to rise by a whopping 31% from 38.8mn b/d in 2016 (of which 32.7mn b/d crude) to 50.9mn b/d in 2040 (41.4mn b/d crude). But this growth is back-loaded: just 2mn b/d between 2016 and 2025, but 7mn b/d in the 2030s.