Opec’s World Oil Outlook, released last month, projects that the organization’s share of global oil supply will hit 47% in 2040, up from 41% in 2016. Global oil production rises by 16% to 108.3mn b/d over the same period, meaning that Opec oil output is set to rise by a whopping 31% from 38.8mn b/d in 2016 (of which 32.7mn b/d crude) to 50.9mn b/d in 2040 (41.4mn b/d crude). But this growth is back-loaded: just 2mn b/d between 2016 and 2025, but 7mn b/d in the 2030s.
Global Output To 2040: Will Opec Be Squeezed Amid Offshore Growth?
24 Nov 2017
Issue:
60 / 47
Opec expects to have its cake and eat it with its current policy of output restraint – higher prices in the near term, with higher market share over the long term. Both Opec and the IEA project that oil demand (and thus output) will keep rising beyond 2040. But plenty of other forecasts are much less bullish. With a rapid rise in non-Opec deepwater output already in train, Opec would be the big loser should ‘peak demand’ arrive sooner rather than later.
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Charts
1: Opec Vs Non-Opec Oil Output (Mn B/D, IEA Projections*): Opec Share To Edge Up From 43% In 2016 To 46% In 2040
2: World’s Top 8 Oil Producers In 2040 (Mn B/D, IEA Projections)
3: Brazil Is Forecast* To Be The Biggest Gainer To 2040, Closely Followed By Iraq And The UD. Russia Is The Biggest Loser (Mn B/D 2040 Vs 2016^)
4: IEA Projects Global Oil Output Will Top 100mn B/D By 2035 And Keep Growing Past 2040, But ‘Conventional’ Share Will Shrink (Mn B/D)
6: Global Oil Output: Winners And Losers T0 2040 (IEA Projections, Mn B/D Vs 2016)
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