Global Output To 2040: Will Opec Be Squeezed Amid Offshore Growth?

Opec expects to have its cake and eat it with its current policy of output restraint – higher prices in the near term, with higher market share over the long term. Both Opec and the IEA project that oil demand (and thus output) will keep rising beyond 2040. But plenty of other forecasts are much less bullish. With a rapid rise in non-Opec deepwater output already in train, Opec would be the big loser should ‘peak demand’ arrive sooner rather than later.

Opec’s World Oil Outlook, released last month, projects that the organization’s share of global oil supply will hit 47% in 2040, up from 41% in 2016. Global oil production rises by 16% to 108.3mn b/d over the same period, meaning that Opec oil output is set to rise by a whopping 31% from 38.8mn b/d in 2016 (of which 32.7mn b/d crude) to 50.9mn b/d in 2040 (41.4mn b/d crude). But this growth is back-loaded: just 2mn b/d between 2016 and 2025, but 7mn b/d in the 2030s.


DON'T HAVE AN ACCOUNT?


NEED TO UPGRADE YOUR CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION?

By upgrading your Print or Digital subscription you will gain access to the MEES Archives Database with past articles and data dating back from 1984.

UPGRADE