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Figures from the IEA and Opec both indicate that demand will outweigh supply in Q3, for the first time since the last quarter of Q4 2013. Yet with stocks continuing to break new records, considerable downwards pressure will remain on prices.
Furthermore, the reprieve is set to be temporary. Not just is supply set to overtake demand again in Q4 as refinery maintenance steps up, but the IEA has revised down its expected demand growth rate for 2017 on the back of weakening global economic growth forecasts. The IEA’s July Oil Market Report (OMR) expects demand growth of 1.42mn b/d this year, falling to 1.25mn b/d in 2017. June’s OMR had 2016 growth of 1.38mn b/d falling to 1.29mn b/d next year.
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