OPEC Revenues Set To Fall Further In 2016

Opec’s dominant members have repeated the mantra in recent months that the worst is over and that there is no need for an output freeze (MEES, 22 April). Crude prices have risen sharply since early April, and have averaged almost $50/B for Brent since mid-May (see p16): with the market apparently moving towards balance both futures markets and most pundits agree that the general trend is upwards.

That may be the case, but annual revenue for the group’s members could be down by as much as 26% from last year’s record breaking lows, MEES analysis indicates.

Painful times continue for the oil-revenue dependent Opec countries, despite the oil price rally palliating the pain. Using average oil prices and output changes for the first half of 2016, MEES estimates that the group’s total oil revenues for the year will be $384bn, down a hefty 26% from last year and an eye-watering 68% from 2012’s record $1.2 trillion (see table).


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