LNG Supply Glut To Depress Prices For Years To Come

Global LNG export capacity rose by 45% between 2011 and 2015 with 90% of this coming from the US and Australia. The “massive expansion” of Australian and latterly US export capacity, particularly since 2014 “just as demand slows” means “global gas prices are set to stay under pressure” for the remainder of the decade whatever happens to oil prices, the IEA notes in its latest Medium Term Gas Market Report, released last week.

With projects averaging over 30 bcm/year approved during 2011-15, long project lead times mean that market oversupply will only get worse out to the end of the decade.

Some 150.5 bcm of LNG liquefaction plants are currently under construction, the IEA calculates, with half of this in the US and almost a third in Australia (see chart 1). This is 40% more than the 107.2 bcm of regasification capacity currently under development.


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