Iran, Saudi Arabia Main Drivers Of Opec NGLs Outlook

Both the IEA and Asia Pacific Energy Consulting see Opec’s output of NGLs rising over the next five years. But the latter is much more bullish.

OECD energy watchdog the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees Opec’s total output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) – condensate, ethane and field LPG - rising by 7.2% between 2015 and 2021, from 6.41mn b/d to 6.88mn b/d. The rate of increase is slightly less than the 7.6% growth in total oil demand forecast in the IEA’s 2016 Medium Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR – MEES, 26 February).

“Low oil prices are slowing growth in Opec’s condensate and NGL output as projects are deferred,” says the IEA. The agency sees Iran “now released from nuclear sanctions” boosting NGLs output by 258,000 b/d by 2021, equivalent to 48.4% of the total 464,000 b/d of additional Opec NGLs output. Iran’s share of Opec NGL’s would rise from 11.4% to 14.4%.


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