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Iraq is banking on higher oil revenues in 2017 to aid its struggling economy, which has been battered by the twin shocks of the oil price crash and the conflict with Islamic State (IS). Oil prices have rallied in the aftermath of this month’s Opec/Non-Opec agreement to cut oil production, netting Iraq additional revenues of around $25mn/day versus last month.
Despite this, the 2017 budget, approved by parliament on 7 December, has adopted a conservative oil price assumption of $42/B: current futures markets indicate Iraqi exports averaging around $47/B in 2017. It envisages exports of 3.75mn b/d, including around 600,000 b/d from fields operated by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). This closely matches the IMF’s proposed 3.6mn b/d at an average price of $43/B (MEES, 23 September).
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