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As ever, the build up to the next Opec meeting on 30 November has been dominated by an increasing number of claims and counter-claims from “sources” close to the proceedings. Every day brings further speculation on the intentions, strategies and demands of the Opec countries and non-Opec attendees, ramping up market activity, and muddying the waters in equal measure.
A production agreement appears very much in reach, even if just an agreement to freeze at current levels. Any agreement to cut could take a number of forms. Opec could stick by the terms of the 32.5-33mn b/d target range agreed upon in Algiers in September and allocate agreed-upon individual country quotas (MEES, 11 November). A similar agreement absent country quotas is also a possibility, albeit one that Iran has previously labeled useless (MEES, 3 June). There is also the option of a smaller production cut, potentially to 33-33.5mn b/d. (CONTINUED - 884 WORDS)