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Current futures prices indicate that Opec countries’ oil revenues, having halved in 2015, are set to fall by a further 30%-plus this year. Prices have fallen by a further $15/B fall since the start of the year. Current Brent futures (of around $36/B for 2016) imply a 2016 average of around $34/B for the somewhat heavier Opec Basket.
This in turn implies collective 2016 Opec oil export revenue of just $356bn, down from a MEES estimate of $496bn for 2015 (itself the first sub-$500bn figure since 2004: see MEES, 11 December 2015) and barely a quarter of 2012’s record $1.2 trillion figure (see table).
This has now created a Catch-22 situation whereby Opec producers’ collapse in oil export revenue means they urgently need to slash spending.
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