World Bank Hikes Iran Growth Forecast But Global Storm Clouds Gather

The World Bank, in its latest six-monthly ‘Global Economic Prospects’ released last week has tripled its forecast for Iran’s 2016 GDP growth to 5.8%. But for the world as a whole the picture is bearish: all key regions have their 2016 forecasts revised down from those made six months earlier. Of the global economy’s two key growth engines the forecast for China has been revised down from 7.0% to 6.7% and that for the US from 2.8% to 2.7%

And even these numbers now look bullish – Beijing’s mismanagement of the stockmarket in recent weeks has spooked investors. Though the Bank does revise down its global 2016 growth projection from 3.3% to 2.9%, the latter still represents a “modest acceleration” on the 2.4% figure for 2015 (itself a sharp downward revision on the 2.8% forecast made six months earlier). But even growth of 2.9% for 2016 looks increasingly out of kilter with economic sentiment.


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