US Output Falls 550,000 B/D From Peak, Gives Succor To Saudi Policy

Latest US crude output data show that volumes have been falling further and faster than had previously been thought.

The latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), released 9 September, pegged August crude output at 140,000 b/d below July levels.

Coming on the back of downward revisions to recent historical data, this implies August output of 9.06mn b/d, some 550,000 b/d or 6% below the peak of 9.61mn b/d hit in April (see graph).

These changes are bearish for global crude supplies given that until a few weeks ago it was unclear from the EIA’s weekly crude output data as to whether output had even peaked at all. Weekly output numbers, which unlike the monthly numbers are not subsequently revised, peaked at just over 9.6mn b/d as recently as the first week of July.


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