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The US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week released its long term (to 2040) oil supply, demand and price forecasts in the 2015 edition of its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).
US crude oil production will peak at 10.6mn b/d in 2020, up from 8.7mn b/d for 2014 and some 1mn b/d higher than the 9.6 mn b/d (for 2019) prediction in the 2014 AEO.
This 1mn b/d hike in the EIA’s forecast in peak US output is a clear reminder that whatever impact lower oil prices may now be having on US output – and the evidence for this is surprisingly weak – we are now starting from a much higher baseline. US crude output rose by an all-time annual record of 1.2mn b/d last year; including NGLs liquids output rose by 1.56mn b/d to 11.6mn b/d (MEES, 13 March).
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