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Middle East crude distillation capacity will grow by 1.7mn b/d by 2020, according the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Middle East and non-OECD Asia, including China, are expected to contribute 4.4mn b/d of new refining capacity out of 6.4mn b/d due online by 2020, according to the IEA’s Medium Term Oil Market Report 2015.
The IEA says global refining capacity will amount to 102.1mn b/d in 2020, of which more than 5mn b/d will be surplus. This compares with a six-year low capacity surplus of 3mn b/d in 2014. “Although capacity expansions look in line with oil demand growth,” the forecast notes, “in fact as much as one third of incremental demand will be met by liquids supplies bypassing the refining system.”
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