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The IEA’s latest long-term projections show the ‘market share’ policy of Saudi and its core Gulf allies is having the desired effect. But the future gains will not be evenly shared throughout Opec. Will the Saudis be able to persuade Opec’s ‘losers’ to sign up for more of the same at next month’s meeting?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) now says that it expects Opec oil output of 38.5mn b/d in 2020, a hike of 1.2mn b/d from its 37.3mn b/d forecast made a year ago. For 2025 the gains are even greater, by 1.4mn b/d to 41.8mn b/d.
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