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US year-on-year oil output growth will turn negative as of January 2016 as US shale producers struggle to attract the capital investment needed to maintain output, Mark Papa, partner at Riverstone Holding and former head of US independent oil and gas company EOG Resources, told delegates at the Oil & Money conference in London this week.
The US State Department’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates crude oil production declined by 120,000 b/d in September compared with August, having peaked at 9.6mn b/d earlier this year, though preliminary weekly production figures suggest a steeper 180,000 b/d fall.
The EIA expects production to average 9.2mn b/d in 2015 and 8.9mn b/d in 2016, before growth resumes late in 2016. US crude production stood at 9.13mn b/d in September, up from 8.96mn b/d in September 2014.
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