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OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) for 2014 shows its members’ oil export revenue for 2013 falling by 8% or $96bn from 2012’s record numbers.
The US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that for 2014 OPEC oil export revenues will fall by a further $50bn or 6% and that revenues will fall a further 8% to $697bn for 2015, when measured in constant 2013 dollars .
Whilst the two sets of data are not directly comparable – the EIA data exclude Iran, and are net of oil product imports – the revenue trend is clearly down (see graph).
With almost all OPEC members, especially in the group’s core Gulf countries, enjoying strong population growth rates, in per capita terms the expected revenue fall for 2014 is even more pronounced.
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