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The International Oil Agency (IEA) sees Kuwaiti oil production declining by some 415,000 b/d over the next five years, according to the 2014 edition of its Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released this week.
Kuwait insists that its production capacity will rise from the current figure of about 3.2mn b/d to 4mn b/d by 2020 (see graph). However this is sharply at odds with the latest projections from the IEA, the energy arm of the OECD group of rich countries.
The IEA sees capacity declining to just 2.47mn b/d by 2019 – leaving Kuwait with a “sustainable crude production capacity” nearly 40% lower than its target. The IEA figures also suggest that the Paris-based group believes that Kuwait currently produces at or near its maximum sustainable capacity, despite Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s (KPC’s) assertion that it has about 300,000 b/d of spare capacity at current production levels (see graph).
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