A report released last week by global warming campaign group Carbon Tracker ironically contains some good news for OPEC. It presses fund managers to question investment by international oil companies (IOCs) in high-cost marginally-profitable projects – seeking ‘value over volume.’ Were this to happen, even partly, then OPEC’s market share would rise.

The IEA, in its 2013 World Energy Outlook (New Policies Scenario) already predicts that OPEC’s loss of market share to ‘non-OPEC’ – primarily US shale and Canadian oil sands – will only be transient. While OPEC’s share of global oil output will fall to 41% for 2015-20, from then on it is set to rise steeply, hitting 46% by 2035 (see graph). (CONTINUED - 567 WORDS)