Carbon Tracker’s Five ‘Breakeven Price Bands’

• OPEC Produces ($0-60/B): Including all potential OPEC supply, production with a breakeven oil price (Brent) below $60/B can supply nearly all required oil through 2050 assuming a 2°C ‘oil-specific’ carbon budget (and all required oil through at least 2035 in the IEA New Policies Scenario). This is the scenario where OPEC does not constrain production to protect prices.

• OPEC Defends Market Share ($60-80/B): This is the price level where much future non-OPEC production becomes economic. This is therefore the area to which prices would need to fall to curtail new investment outside OPEC. Such a price would imply that OPEC had decided to abandon its policy of defending price and moved to defending market share (as it has done previously, for example in 1986). (CONTINUED - 327 WORDS)