US Lowers 2015 Output Forecasts, But OPEC Needs More

The US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised down its 2015 crude output projections. This follows OPEC’s late-November decision to keep its output ceiling unchanged at 30mn b/d and resultant expectations of prolonged pressure on oil prices. But the downward revision is only by 100,000 b/d. US crude output will still grow by 720,000 b/d to a 43-year high of 9.32mn b/d in 2015, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Official OPEC pronouncements at and since the organization’s 27 November meeting suggest a market view – or hope – that current sub-$70/B oil prices will be short lived as they will rapidly eat into marginal production, in particular US shale, by the second half of next year (MEES, 28 November).


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