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The IEA and OPEC have both slashed their forecasts for the ‘call on OPEC’ crude for both this year and next. Both cut their 2015 forecasts by around 300,000 b/d to 28.9mn b/d, some 1.5mn b/d below current OPEC output. With Saudi Arabia holding output steady at 9.6mn b/d and Iraq and Iran planning output gains during 2015, something has to give. At the moment that something is prices.
The front month January Brent contract was trading at under $63/B as MEES went to press on 12 December – down by 44% from the $115/B mid-June peak.
Prices have fallen by $14/B in the two weeks since OPEC’s 27 November decision to leave its current 30mn barrel ceiling unchanged.
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