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OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have differing views on the long-term investment required in Middle East refining capacity, but over $175bn – equivalent to $6.5bn a year – is the minimum anticipated to 2040. Both envisage regional crude distillation capacity surging to 2040, driven by rising local demand and governments’ search for increased revenues from oil resources.
OPEC’s recent 2014 World Oil Outlook (WOO) forecasts a 3.7mn b/d increase in Middle East refining capacity to 2040: 2.3mn b/d during 2014-19 and 1.4mn b/d during 2020-40. The IEA’s 2014 World Energy Outlook (WEO) envisages 4.0mn b/d of net distillation capacity additions in the Middle East to 2040, from 7.7mn b/d at end-2013.
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