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The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC both see the Middle East’s recent refining surge continuing through 2040. In their first forecasts to 2040, the IEA sees the Middle East share of global refinery throughputs rising from 8.5% to 12.2%, while OPEC sees a hike from 8.1% to 11.5% (see Table 1).
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2014 envisages Middle East refinery throughputs rising from 6.6mn b/d in 2013 to 8.5mn b/d in 2020 and 10.6mn b/d in 2040. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2014 (MEES, 7 November), sees runs of 8.1mn b/d in 2013, 10.7mn b/d in 2020, and 11.5mn b/d in 2040.
Meanwhile global refining capacity, including condensate splitters, increases by 16.1mn b/d to 108.7mn b/d by 2040, from 92.6mn b/d at the end of 2013, according to the IEA. This includes net capacity additions of 4.0mn b/d in the Middle East from the 7.7mn b/d at the end of 2014.
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