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Despite surrendering some of its market share to non-OPEC producers over the coming years due primarily to the strong growth in US tight oil output, the IEA sees OPEC producers reclaiming and eventually boosting their share as non-OPEC output begins to tail off post-2020.
But for this to happen, investment will be critical – though given today’s market climate and the resulting 30% slide in oil prices since June, this is something one should certainly not take for granted (see p28).
In the latest annual World Energy Outlook (WEO), the OECD energy watchdog warns that today’s picture of a well-supplied market should not invite consumers to be complacent. There are many challenges ahead which will need to be tackled head on given that the world is set to depend on a shrinking pool of key suppliers – the majority of which are situated in the volatile Middle East.
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