OPEC’s key medium term challenge is to keep its head above water for the next decade. Over these 10 years it will have to manage production increases from within its own ranks and continued growth in non-OPEC output, particularly North American light tight oil and oil sands production. But there is also the risk of a near-term sharp price fall should Iraq, Iran and Libya succeed in overcoming challenges to supply growth.

Saudi Arabia, for one, sees trouble ahead but is relaxed about the short-term outlook for oil markets, boosted this week by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) upward revision of the global demand forecast for 2014 (see table). (CONTINUED - 1827 WORDS)