Recapitalization of the Syrian state-owned banking system, post conflict, is estimated to cost between $10.5bn and $16bn, roughly about 20-30% of pre-civil war GDP of around $50bn, according to a new research published in November by Darien Middle East. The research adds that this is an amount of money which would “not preclude a rapid recapitalization, if western powers are willing to provide financial and technical support for the process.”

But the research points out that the principal challenges in the recapitalization process will depend on whether Syria will have a strong government after the conflict, namely “one that is able to take and impose decisions reasonably quickly, or whether a post-conflict government is characterized by factional fighting.” It goes on to say that in the first case, reconstruction, including recapitalization, will be “a largely technical affair,” which can be implemented fairly quickly; while in the second case, “reconstruction will be a hostage to political interest trading and is unlikely to progress quickly.” (CONTINUED - 789 WORDS)