OPEC admits it is likely to be sidelined somewhat by resurgent non-OPEC supplies over the coming four-to-five year period, driven largely by the much-discussed North American shale and light tight oil boom. But any suggestion these extra barrels are here to stay has been brushed off by the producer group, which expects to see a marked revival in the demand for its crude by the end of the decade, as the production of shale and other unconventional oils plateau.
In its 2013 annual World Oil Outlook (WOO) released late last week, OPEC says it envisages the call on its crude to steadily decline year-on-year until 2017, at which point demand for its oil will hit 28.8mn b/d, some 1.5mn b/d down on current levels of 30.3mn b/d. This would represent just a 31% share of total oil supply for the producer group, from close to 35% in 2012. (CONTINUED - 1996 WORDS)