OPEC production in September fell somewhat from August levels as the impact of maintenance programs in Angola and supply disruption in Nigeria outweighed a rebound in Saudi and Iranian output levels, according to MEES estimates.

OPEC basket prices have eased from mid-September highs. And all the indications are OPEC will need to enforce a far higher degree of output discipline if members wish to avoid prices coming under far more severe pressure in the next three-to-four months. According to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the demand for OPEC crude will fall 400,000 b/d into the fourth quarter, and a further 1.3mn b/d in Q1 2013. MEES output estimates of around 31.5mn b/d for September OPEC, while over 600,000 b/d down on April, nevertheless remains a hefty 1mn b/d above the MOMR’s estimate for the fourth quarter Call on OPEC crude (MEES, 14 September). (CONTINUED - 634 WORDS)