A weaker-than-anticipated performance from non-OPEC supply coupled with a minor upward adjustment to global oil demand projections prompted OPEC to boost its estimate for demand for its own oil. The latest edition of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market (MOMR) raised its estimate for the Call on OPEC crude by 220,000 b/d and 250,000 b/d for 2012 and 2013 respectively, despite lowering its projections for 2012 economic growth by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The IMF also downwardly revised its 2012 economic growth forecast by the same amount to 3.3% (See p21).
As with other market fundamentals data, the trajectory of the Call on OPEC projections is just as significant as outright numbers. And for this trajectory, adjustments going forward are more modest or are less positive for OPEC. Demand for OPEC crude falls some 540,000 b/d into the fourth quarter, according to this month’s MOMR, compared to a smaller 430,000 b/d drop in last month’s report. Furthermore, the Call on OPEC crude for 2012 is estimated at only 340,000 b/d higher than that forecast for 2013 (see table). Last month’s MOMR had put the 2012 Call on OPEC at 370,000 b/d above 2013’s estimated level. (CONTINUED - 687 WORDS)