Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. LII
No 49
7
Political Comment (7 December 2009)
The Iranians have reacted badly to an IAEA resolution criticizing its nuclear program, dealing a potentially fatal blow to President Barack Obama's campaign to engage Tehran. Lebanon's new government has reached a modus vivendi with Hizbollah on the latter's militia.
Iran Defies IAEA
On 27 November the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed by 25 votes to 3 a resolution urging Iran ‒ inter alia ‒ to halt construction at the recently disclosed uranium enrichment plant at Qom, to clarify the purpose of the plant and to confirm that there are no further hidden facilities, touching off a sequence of events that may well have put paid to any chance of resolving the question of Iran's nuclear program diplomatically through negotiations between Tehran and the P5+1 (the US, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany). The immediate reaction from Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asgar Soltanieh, was to say that "we will not implement any word of it because this is a politically motivated gesture against the Iranian nation." The Iranians followed up on 29 November by announcing that they planned to build 10 new enrichment plants, with the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi declaring that "the Islamic Republic of Iran has decided not to halt its enrichment activities even for one moment." On 30 November, Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani suggested that Iran might withdraw from the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), saying "I believe their moves are harming the NPT most…Now, whether you are a member of the NPT or pull out of it makes no difference." The next day Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared to rule out further talks with the P5+1 when he said "we were interested from the beginning in solving all the problems related to the nuclear issue. Now the issue, in our opinion, is over." And on 2 December he dismissed the P5+1 proposal to send Iran's low enriched uranium abroad for further processing by saying "the Iranian nation will produce 20% enriched uranium and anything it needs " itself, adding for good measure that "the Zionist regime and its backers cannot do a damn thing to stop Iran's nuclear work."
Setback To Engagement
As might be imagined, the news that Iran intends ‒ at least verbally ‒ to build more enrichment facilities and to enrich uranium to 20% came as a setback to President Barack Obama's campaign to engage the Iranians. In Washington, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said after the IAEA vote on 27 November that "the fact that 25 countries from all parts of the world cast their votes in favor shows the urgent need for Iran to address the growing international deficit of confidence in its intentions." After the announcement of the new enrichment facilities, Mr Gibbs warned that "if true, this would be yet another serious violation of Iran's clear obligations…and another example of Iran choosing to isolate itself. Time is running out for Iran to address the international community's growing concerns about its nuclear program." And on 30 November the American ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, described the Iranian announcement as "completely inappropriate and further isolating Iran from the international community," adding that the US was "serious about implementing to the fullest extent that dual-track policy" of offering incentives while threatening sanctions
How much closer the IAEA resolution and Iran's reaction may have brought further sanctions is anyone's guess, but it is probably safe to say that they have made it a good deal more difficult for Mr Obama to come up with a positive evaluation of progress in the negotiations by the year-end deadline he has set himself. It is true that both Russia and China voted in favor of the resolution and that the Russians said on 30 November that they were "seriously concerned by the latest statements of the Iranian leadership." But Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang did not sound exactly as if he was champing at the bit when he said on 1 December that "we support protecting the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, and advocate resolution of the Iran nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations. We believe that in the present circumstances the parties involved should continue intensifying diplomatic efforts. Sanctions are not the goal."
Hizbollah Keeps Its Militia
It was presumably no coincidence at all that the adoption by the new Lebanese government of a policy statement on 2 December was preceded on 30 November by the announcement by Hizbollah of a new political manifesto. The 32-page document is predictably hostile to Israel and the US, but does show signs that Hizbollah may be mellowing with age (such as dropping any reference to an Islamic republic in Lebanon). As for the controversial question of the group's armed militia, the document states that resistance "is a permanent national necessity that should last as long as the Israeli threat, and in the absence of a strong, stable state in Lebanon." That is more or less the position adopted by the cabinet in its statement, paragraph 6 of which, according to Information Minister Tariq Mitri, endorses “the right of Lebanon, its people, its army and its resistance to liberate the occupied Lebanese territory in Shebaa and Kfar Shouba hills.” Mr Mitri added that one member of the 30-strong cabinet had objected to paragraph 6 and 4 had expressed reservations, but this "does not mean there is an opposition bloc within the cabinet. We are one united government."
Charles Snow