Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. LII
No 38
21
Political Comment (21 September 2009)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now flatly refused to halt settlement construction on the West Bank. Iran and the P5+1 are finally to meet face to face. In Lebanon, Sa'd al-Hariri has been reappointed prime minister designate.
Netanyahu Turns Obama Down On Settlements
At MEES press time on 18 September, the latest tour of the region by US special envoy George Mitchell ‒ beginning on 11 September and taking in Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt ‒ did not appear to be making much progress in the attempt to restart the Middle East peace process. The focus, and the problem, was, as ever, the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and things got off to a bad start when on 14 September, the day before he was due to meet with Mr Mitchell, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared flatly that "they asked us for a complete freeze and we told them that we will not do this. I told the Americans we would consider reducing the scope of construction. But there has to be a balance between the desire to make progress in political negotiations and the need to allow inhabitants of Judea and Samaria to continue to lead normal lives." Mr Netanyahu also made it clear that any "reduction" in construction would be in effect only for a limited time only, meaning that what Israel is offering are "restrictions" on construction in the occupied territories for a limited period, but only after completing some
2,500 units already under construction plus the 455 new units authorized last week. That is a far cry from the complete halt to construction which the Americans are seeking, and as such a direct challenge to President Barack Obama to back his demands with action. It remains to be seen whether Mr Mitchell can pull a rabbit out of the hat and come up with a plausible way out of a confrontation with Israel which all American president would rather avoid. But the prognosis is not hopeful, since two days of meetings between Mr Mitchell and Mr Netanyahu produced only an agreement to meet again on 18 September and a 16 September statement from the latter saying that “the prime minister and Senator Mitchell had a good meeting this morning. They decided to continue their discussions in a meeting that will take place this coming Friday."
Iran And P5+1 To Meet
Amidst a barrage of confusing statements from the Iranians, and as the timeline for Tehran to respond to President Barack Obama's offer to engage runs out, Iran and the US (as well as Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany ‒ the P5+1) have agreed to begin face to face talks on 1 October ‒ and the Americans have made it very clear that whatever the Iranians say, they intend to raise the issue of Iran's nuclear activities. According to State Department spokesman PJ Crowley on 11 September, "we seek direct negotiations. We want to see Iran sit down face to face with the P5+1 countries and address all of the issues that we have concern about, including the nuclear issue. If we have a meeting we're going to bring up the nuclear issue and we'll see if Iran responds to that." Mr Crowley also reaffirmed the timetable for engagement set by Mr Obama earlier this year, saying "we're going to assess where we are during the course of this month. Then at the end of the year, we'll be able to draw some conclusions as to how successful our engagement offer has been." Washington's determination to talk nuclear was underlined by White House spokesman Robert Gibbs when he said on 12 September that "this may not have been a topic that they wanted to be brought up, but I can assure you that it's a topic that we'll bring up." Two days later, Mr Gibb warned that "if Iran is unwilling to discuss their illicit nuclear weapons program, I think all that does is strengthen the hand of the international community in underscoring the obligation that the Iranians are failing to live up to." And the last word went to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when she declared on 15 September that "we have made clear to the Iranians that any talks we participate in must address the nuclear issue head on. It cannot be ignored."
If the Americans left little room for doubt that they intend to discuss nuclear issue, the Iranians ‒ who have raised ambiguity to an art form ‒ left plenty. On 12 September, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that "we cannot have any compromise with respect to the Iranian nation's inalienable right," but added that the package of proposals put forward by Iran last week showed its "firm resolve" to address various issues and that "our new proposal is a package…if its conditions are brought about talks can take place." President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad appeared categorical the next day when he said that "from the Iranian nation's viewpoint, the nuclear case is closed. Possessing peaceful nuclear technology is the Iranian nation's legal and definitive right and it will not hold discussions about its inalienable rights." On 14 September, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi was a good deal more nuanced, saying "Iran will not talk over its definite rights, but as you might be aware, a part of the proposed package addresses removal of global concerns and particularly over nuclear disarmament." On the same day the head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, sounded a familiar note when he declared that "there is no room to bargain on sovereign right," but added that "once it comes to discussions everybody is free to pose any questions they wish" and that while "no country really bargains on its sovereign rights," this "does not mean that within a larger framework discussing nuclear issues ‒ disarmament, peaceful uses of nuclear energy, non-proliferation ‒ these are all issues which are of concern to everybody internationally."
It was left to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak (of all people) to put the uproar about Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program into perspective. Mr Barak said in a newspaper interview published on 18 September that "right now, Iran does not have a bomb. Even if it did, this would not make it a threat to Israel's existence. Israel can lay waste to Iran." In other words, the Iranian government may not like Israel very much, but that does not mean it is insane. Mutually assured destruction ‒ in this instance a good deal more assured for Iran than Israel ‒ works as a deterrent.
Hariri Tries Again
After a day of consultations with Lebanon's 128 deputies, President Michel Suleiman on 16 September reappointed Sa'd al-Hariri ‒ who stepped down as prime minister designate last week due to differences with the opposition 8 March coalition headed by Hizbollah ‒ to try to form a unity government. Mr Hariri said he would begin consultations on forming a cabinet next week and that his aim would be to form an "inclusive and effective" government, although this seems less likely than when he was first appointed after the parliamentary elections on June, since the tone of Lebanon's political discourse appears to be turning increasingly adversarial.
Charles Snow