Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. LII
No 36
Political Comment (7 September 2009)
Relations between Iraq and Syria are going from bad to worse after the 19 August bomb attacks in Baghdad. Iran is sending mixed messages about resuming talks with the P5+1 as the date for the UN General Assembly meeting approaches. Fighting between government forces and Zaidi rebels is continuing in Yemen's northern Sa'da province.
Iraq Wants International Tribunal To Probe Bombings
Iraq and Syria have continued to trade accusations and denials in the wake of the 19 August bombings in Baghdad that killed nearly 100 people. On 30 August the Iraqis aired a confession from a Saudi national who claimed he had trained at an al-Qa'ida camp in Syria run by a Syrian intelligence agent, a claim which many, if not most, observers find hard to swallow. (For one thing, Syria's Ba'thists are secularists who have given short and brutal shrift to even relatively moderate Islamic groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood (in Hama in 1982). For another the regime in Damascus is dominated by 'Alawites, adherents of an Islamic splinter group regarded by mainstream Muslims as heretical to the point of apostasy and certainly not at all to the liking of Sunni Salafists such as al-Qa'ida.) And on 31 August Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki issued a statement demanding that Syria hand over the suspects Iraq alleges were behind the bombings and claiming that "Iraq has presented to Syria since 2004 names, addresses, information, documents and proof of the activity of terrorists …and the ways in which they sneak through Syrian lands." Mr Maliki also claimed that 90% of foreign fighters in Iraq had come through Syria and demanded that "the UN form an international criminal court to try the perpetrators of these ugly crimes." (It subsequently emerged that Mr Maliki had sent a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on 30 August asserting that "the scope and nature of these crimes calls for an investigation beyond Iraqi legal jurisdiction and prosecution of the perpetrators before a special international criminal tribunal. The magnitude of these crimes demands that they be addressed immediately by the international community.") That was evidently too much for Syrian President Bashar al-Asad , who told a press conference in Damascus on the same day that "when Syria is accused of killing Iraqis, while it is housing around 1.2 million Iraqis…this is considered an immoral accusation. When Syria is accused of supporting terrorism, while it has been fighting it for decades…this is a political accusation that follows no political logic. And when it is accused of terrorism without proof, it is outside any legal logic."
Iran Sends Mixed Messages On Nuclear Talks
As the deadline for evaluating Tehran's response to President Obama's attempt to engage Iran ‒ the UN General Assembly (UNGA) meeting on 23-23 September ‒ approaches, Iranian officials have been sending confusingly contradictory messages about reopening talks with the six powers (the US, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany, or P5+1) on its nuclear program. On 1 September, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, was quoted by Iran's Arab-language satellite channel as saying that "Iran has prepared an updated nuclear proposal and is ready to resume negotiations with world powers," adding that Iran was ready to use its "capacities to remove common concerns on the international scene." Mr Jalili's conciliatory tone met with a nonplussed response in Washington, where White House spokesman Robert Gibb said that "we've seen the reports, though we have not heard anything conclusively from the Iranians on that." But the next day the political director in the German foreign ministry, Volker Stanzel, said after meeting with his counterparts from the other five powers that "I expect Iran to respond to the offer of talks in April by agreeing to meet before the UNGA." However, on 3 September, Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Asghar Soltanieh, appeared to pour cold water on the idea of resuming talks with the P5+1, saying that "it is wrong to think that possible talks…would be about Iran's nuclear program. Iran's nuclear issue can only be examined at the IAEA." Meanwhile on the other side of the table, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy sounded distinctly impatient with the Iranians after meeting in Berlin on 31 August. The former talked of further sanctions against Iran "in the energy, financial and other important sectors," saying "we must try to set these sanctions on the widest possible basis." As for Mr Sarkozy, he declared that "initiatives must be taken during the month of September which take account of Iran's will or otherwise to cooperate…Germany and France will be united in calling for a strengthening of sanctions."
Yemeni Government Turns Down Ceasefire Proposal
The leader of the Zaidi Shi'ite insurgents in Yemen's northern Sa'da province, 'Abd al-Malik al-Huthi, on 31 August proposed a return to the status quo ante in a statement announcing "an initiative to stop the war so that roads are opened, the presence of armed mobilization ends and the situation returns to how it was before." This was presumably taken by the government as a sign that things were not going well for the rebels, since an unnamed military official was quoted in the official media on 1 September as saying that "the recent announcement of what they said was a ceasefire initiative contained nothing new" and calling on the rebels to "stop all forms of interference in local government." This in turn elicited a statement from the Zaidis on 2 September declaring that "since the authorities have rejected the initiative, we remind them that they have lost a valuable opportunity. From now on they will see the grave consequences of the war and we promise them major surprises and a long war of attrition, longer than they think and in which we shall be patient. We will stand up to their aggression and tyranny." Meanwhile both the government and the rebels have continued to accuse outsiders ‒ the Iranians and Saudis respectively ‒ of interfering. Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi said on 31 August that he had summoned the Iranian ambassador and warned him that "if Iranian media want to be a tool in the hands of the subversives in Sa'da and to adopt their positions, this will have negative consequences for Yemeni-Iranian relations which will require us to take difficult decisions." The Zaidis for their part on 4 September issued a video showing Saudi military equipment allegedly captured from an army unit, saying "we are placing before everyone the fact of direct Saudi support that we have talked about. The regime has ceded sovereignty…and delivered the country to foreign interests."
Charles Snow