Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. LII
No 32
Political Comment (10 August 2009)
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been sworn in as president of Iran and must now seek the approval of the Majlis for his cabinet. Druze leader Walid Junblat is becoming restless within the confines of Lebanon's ruling 14 March coalition. The Saudis want the Palestinians to get their act together.
Ahmadinejad Sworn In
The formal endorsement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president by Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei on 3 August ‒ "I am endorsing the presidency of this brave, hard-working and wise man as the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran" ‒ and Mr Ahmadinejad's swearing in before the Majlis on 5 August appear to signal the definitive end of the original campaign by the opposition to have the 12 June presidential election annulled. However it is far from the end of the political confrontation sparked by the election between Mr Ahmadinejad's conservative backers ‒ headed by Ayatollah Khamenei himself ‒ and the reformist opposition led by the runner up in the election, Mir Hossein Mussavi, although the next battle is likely to be fought not on the streets but in parliament, where the president must present his cabinet for approval within two weeks. In a preliminary engagement, the swearing-in ceremony was boycotted by some 70 opposition deputies, including former presidents Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami.
Western countries also expressed their opinion of developments in Tehran by failing to congratulate Mr Ahmadinejad on his reelection and attending the swearing-in at only a minimal level, prompting the president to tell the Majlis that "we heard that some of the western leaders had decided to recognize but not congratulate the new government. Well, no one is waiting for your messages. Iran will pay attention neither to your scowls and bullying nor your smiles and greetings." Given the general disapproval in Europe and the US, it was something of a surprise when White House spokesman Robert Gibbs appeared to endorse Mr Ahmadinejad's election on 4 August, saying "this was a decision and a debate ongoing in Iran by Iranians, they were going to choose their leadership. He's the elected leader." However, the next day Mr Gibbs rephrased his remarks as follows: "Let me correct a little bit of what I said yesterday. I denoted that Mr Ahmadinejad was the elected leader of Iran. I would say that's not for me to pass judgment on. He's been inaugurated. That's a fact. Whether any election was fair, obviously the Iranian people still have questions about that, and we'll let them decide about that."
Junblat Restless
"Mercurial" is an adjective that has on occasion been applied to Lebanese Druze leader Walid Junblat, and it is one that sprang immediately to mind when on 2 August out of the blue he appeared to abandon the 14 March anti-Syrian parliamentary coalition headed by Sa'd al-Hariri of which he was a founding and important member. Mr Junblat told a conference of his Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) that the coalition's campaign in the June parliamentary elections had been motivated by "the rejection of the opposition on sectarian, tribal and political levels rather than being based on a political platform," that "the 7 June parliamentary elections led to sectarian alliances which should be eliminated, " and that his adherence to the coalition "was driven by necessity and must end." Unsurprisingly, given that the 14 March coalition includes parties as ideologically incompatible with the PSP as the Christian Phalange and Lebanese Forces, this was generally taken to mean that the PSP was withdrawing from the group (although not necessarily joining the pro-Syrian 8 March coalition headed by Hizbollah), a development which was expected to have a significant impact on Mr Hariri's attempt to form a national unity government. However, after meeting with President Michel Sleiman on 5 August to clarify "misunderstandings that surrounded" his remarks, Mr Junblat made it clear that it was not his intention to hinder the formation of a government, saying that "my statement should not be interpreted as an obstruction to the government's formation" and that "I did not and would not abandon Sa'd Hariri…we will stand by him in the government formation process." Instead he told the other members of the 14 March coalition that "we have achieved a lot, but…it's time for a new outlook," adding that the group "cannot continue to exist with the same slogans."
'Abd Allah Tells Palestinians To Unite
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Sa'ud al-Faisal has warned the Americans in blunt terms that an incremental approach to regional peacemaking which begins with peripheral issues is not likely to succeed. Speaking at a press conference in Washington on 31 July, Prince Sa'ud said that "temporary security and confidence-building measures will also not bring peace. What is required is a comprehensive approach that defines the final outcome and launches into negotiations over final status issues." Referring to the Saudi peace initiative adopted at the Arab summit in Beirut in 2002 ‒ which offers Israel full recognition by all the Arab states in return for a withdrawal from all territory occupied in 1967, the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank with east Jerusalem as its capital, and "a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem" ‒ Prince Sa'ud said "Israel must decide if it wants real peace, which is at hand, or if it wants to continue obfuscating and as a result lead the region into a maelstrom of instability and violence," adding that "the question is not what the Arab world will offer. The question really is what Israel will give in exchange for this comprehensive offer."
Even supposing Israel's reluctance to discuss final status issues can somehow be overcome, there is another very obvious obstacle to the peace process on the Palestinian side, the split between Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank, and the Saudi ruler, King 'Abd Allah ibn 'Abd al-'Aziz, is now publicly calling on the Palestinians to settle their differences. In an open letter to Palestinian President Mahmud 'Abbas published in the London daily al-Hayat on 6 August as Mr 'Abbas's Fatah party was holding its first congress since 1989, King 'Abd Allah warned that "even if the whole world agreed to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with all the needed support and backing, it will not be established as long as the Palestinian house is divided. ..the criminal enemy could not over long years of continued aggression have inflicted as much damage to the Palestinian cause as did the Palestinians themselves in a matter of a few months."
Charles Snow