Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. LII
No 30
Political Comment (27 July 2009)
Former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani has now openly, if cautiously, joined the reformist camp in the battle over the 12 June presidential election. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has revealed that if the US cannot prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, it may counter by extending its defense umbrella to its regional allies.
Rafsanjani: "We Have All Been Harmed"
In the six weeks since Iran's disputed presidential election, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been noticeable principally for his silence (and, on the rare occasions when he said anything, for his impenetrable ambiguity). So when he rose to deliver the Friday sermon at prayers in Tehran on 17 July, there was naturally intense speculation as to which way one of the wiliest politicians in Iran was going to jump. And the answer would appear to be into the camp of the reformists who are contesting the victory of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, albeit cautiously and while positioning himself as the defender of the Islamic revolution's true values. In particular, Mr Rafsanjani was careful not to criticize Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who threw in his lot with Mr Ahmadinejad shortly after the 12 June election, directly, although it is hard to see statements such as "'we shouldn't let our enemies laugh because we've imprisoned our own people" as anything but an attack on the policies of those backing Mr Ahmadinejad. Describing the present situation as "this period of hardships that can be called a crisis," Mr Rafsanjani said "we could have taken our best step in the history of the Islamic revolution had the election not faced problems," adding that "when people are not in the scene and their votes are not there, that government is not Islamic. Today is a bitter day." He also warned that "if the Islamic and republican sides of the revolution are not preserved, it means we have forgotten the principles of the revolution" and called on the government to release arrested protesters and allow freedom of the press, saying that "it is not necessary for us to have a number of people in prisons…it is not necessary to pressure media. We should allow them to work freely within the law." Above all, the former president stressed the need to restore the voters' faith in the system, which "cannot be brought back in a day or a night…we have all been harmed."
Naturally none of this went down too well with the hardline conservatives who
are backing Mr Ahmadinejad such as Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, who asked the next
day "who planted the seeds of doubt in the election in the minds of people?
Isn't this sowing discord?" and suggested that "those who planted doubt in
society and those who irrigated it to make it sprout out of the soil and pour
onto the streets to violate people's lives and property…should be dealt with
legally." Ayatollah Khamenei himself was less Draconian but more apocalyptic
when he declared on 20 July that "elites should know that any talk, action or
analysis that helps the enemy is a move against the nation. We should be very
careful. People regard with hate anyone, in any position, who wants to move
society towards insecurity. There are things that should not be said. If we say
them, we have moved against the nation. This is now a test for the elites and
failing in this test…means falling down."
Such remarks appear to have done little to intimidate two of the leading reformists. Former president Mohammad Khatami declared on 20 July that "the only way out of the current situation is to hold a referendum. People should be asked whether they are happy with the current situation…if the vast majority of people are happy with the current situation we will accept it as well." And the candidate who according to the official results came in second in the election, Mir Husain Mussavi, warned the government on the same day that "you are facing something new, a nation that has been born again and is here to defend its achievement." and asked: "Who believes that they would conspire with foreigners and sell the interests of their own country? Has our country become so mean and degraded that you attribute the huge protest movement of the nation to foreigners? Isn't this an insult to our nation?"
Clinton Unveils Plan B On Iran's Nuclear Program
In what may turn out to be a significant evolution of American policy, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has revealed that the Obama administration has a Plan B in the event that Iran succeeds in acquiring nuclear weapons ‒ the extension of the US defense umbrella to its allies in the Middle East so as to render the exercise pointless. Speaking in Thailand on 22 July, Mrs Clinton said that the US would "hold the door open" for negotiations, but "we have also made it clear that we'll take actions, as I've said time and time again, crippling action, working to upgrade the defense of our partners in the region. We want Iran to calculate what I think is a fair assessment…that if the US extends a defense umbrella over the region, if we do even more to support the military capacity of those in the Gulf, it's unlikely Iran will be any stronger or safer because they won't be able to intimidate and dominate as they apparently believe they can once they have a nuclear weapon." To make sure that the message was getting through, she told a press conference later on the same day that "I was simply pointing out that Iran needs to understand that its pursuit of nuclear weapons will not advance its security or achieve its goals of enhancing its power both regionally and globally. The focus that Iran must have is that it faces the prospect, if it pursues nuclear weapons, of sparking an arms race in the region. That should affect the calculation of what Iran intends to do and what it believes is in its national security interest because it may render Iran less secure, not more secure."
Insofar as this sort of approach to the problem of Iran's nuclear ambitions lessens the possibility of an American military response, it was unlikely to go down well in Israel, and Israeli deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor duly noted that "I was not thrilled to hear the American statement…that they will protect their allies with a nuclear umbrella, as if they have already come to terms with a nuclear Iran. I think that's a mistake. I think it would be more appropriate not to accept the premise that Iran has turned nuclear but to try to prevent this."
Charles Snow