Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. LII
No 10
9
Political Comment (9 March 2009)
The US will be out of Iraq altogether by the end of 2011, according to the timetable announced by President Barack Obama. On her first visit to the region, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stressed Washington's willingness to engage Iran and Syria and its support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, shows no sign of moderating his position on Israel.
Obama Sets Timetable For Disengagement
President Barack Obama has now laid out a timetable for bringing the Bush administration’s exercise in imperial overreach in Iraq to a close by ending combat operations next year and withdrawing all troops by the end of 2011. In a speech on 27 February Mr Obama emphasized that “we cannot police Iraq’s streets indefinitely, until they are completely safe, nor can we stay until Iraq’s union is perfect…we cannot sustain indefinitely a commitment that has put a strain on our military and will cost the American people nearly a trillion dollars,” and that therefore “we are leaving Iraq to its people and we have begun the work of ending this war.” To do so “I have chosen a timeline that will remove our combat brigades over the next 18 months. Let me say this as plainly as I can: by 31 August 2010 our combat mission on Iraq will end” and “I intend to remove all US troops from Iraq by the end of 2011.” In the interim the US will maintain a “transitional” force of 35,000-50,000 troops in Iraq whose function will be “training, equipping and advising Iraqi security forces as long as they remain non-sectarian; conducting targeted counter-terrorism missions; and protecting our ongoing civilian and military efforts within Iraq.” According to the US leader, the troop drawdown is a “clear signal that Iraq’s future is now its own responsibility.”
Clinton Tours
In his speech Mr Obama also stressed that “the US will pursue principled and sustained engagement with all of the nations in the region, and that will include Iran and Syria,” and when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Egypt on 2 March at the start of her first visit to the region she reiterated that “we are willing to extend a hand” to Iran “if the other side unclenches its fist in order to have some process of engagement.” On the same day she rather ostentatiously shook the hand of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu΄allim at a donors’ conference in Sharm al-Shaikh, saying subsequently that “with respect to talking with the Syrian foreign minister…we are reaching out to determine what, if any, areas of cooperation and engagement are possible.” That process was taken a stage further when Mrs Clinton announced that “we are going to be sending two officials” – assistant secretary of state Jeffrey Feltman and White House official Daniel Shapiro – to Syria for “preliminary conversations.” She added that “we have no way to predict what the future of our relations concerning Syria might be,” but that “we don’t engage in discussions for the sake of having conversations.”
Mrs Clinton also began the process of coming to grips with the Arab-Israeli conflict with visits to the West Bank and Israel, where Prime Minister designate Benjamin Netanyahu has given up on forming a coalition with the center party Kadima and is now trying to form a government with secular and religious parties to the right of his own Likud. This can only make him more openly intransigent on issues such as settlements and a two-state solution – he is for the former and against the latter – and Mrs Clinton laid the groundwork for a potential confrontation when she emphasized on 3 March that the US believes “the inevitability of working towards a two-state solution is inescapable…we happen to believe that moving towards a two-state solution is in Israel’s best interests.” She was also openly critical of Israel’s plans to demolish more than 80 Palestinian houses in east Jerusalem, saying “clearly this kind of activity is unhelpful and not in keeping with the obligations entered into under the ‘road map.’ It is an issue that we intend to raise with the government of Israel and the government at the municipal level in Jerusalem.” As for settlements, she did not call for an immediate halt to their expansion, but said that “we will be looking for a way to put it on the table along with all the other issues that need to be discussed and resolved,” adding that “we should wait until we have a new Israeli government. That will be soon and then we will look at whatever tools are available.” Since the most that can be expected from a Netanyahu government is foot dragging in the negotiations while expanding settlements at a breakneck pace, it is a safe bet that if Mr Netanyahu does succeed in forming a coalition, there will be no progress towards peace unless the Obama administration is a good deal more willing to stand up to Israel than its predecessor.
Khamenei Slams Israel
It remains to be seen whether the Americans and Iranians will find any areas where their views and interests converge, but it is a certainty that one subject on which they will never agree is Israel, as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made abundantly clear on 4 March. Speaking at a conference in support of Palestine in Tehran, the ayatollah said that “even the new president of the US who came to power with the motto of changing the Bush administration’s policies talks about unconditional commitment to secure Israel. This is defending terrorism by a government.” He added that “another big mistake is to say that the only way to save the Palestinian nation is by negotiations. Negotiations with whom? With an occupying and bullying regime, which does not believe in any principle other than force?... Or negotiations with America and Britain who committed the biggest sin in creating and supporting this cancerous tumor? The only way to save Palestine is resistance.”
Charles Snow