Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 51/52
The Political Scene (20/27 December 2004)
Iraq’s defense minister has accused Iran and Syria of fostering the current violence in the country, but the Americans seem less sure. Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghuti has withdrawn from the Palestinian presidential race.
Sha'lan Accuses Iran And Syria
Iraq passed another milestone on the road towards the scheduled elections on 30 January as 6,400 candidates on 100 lists put forward by 66 political parties, 25 individuals and 9 coalitions registered with the electoral commission by the 15 January deadline. Meanwhile, as violence continued around the country, Iraqi Defense Minister Hazim Sha'lan accused Iran and Syria of fomenting the insurgency, saying on 15 December that “Iran is the most dangerous enemy of Iraq and all Arabs. The source of terrorism in Iraq is Iran… terrorism in Iraq is orchestrated by Iranian intelligence, Syrian intelligence and Saddam loyalists, in collaboration with Zarqawi. The financing and training of the terrorists come from Syria and Iran.” This is not the first time that Mr Sha'lan has detected mullahs under the bed – last July he described Iran as “the first enemy of Iraq” – and when asked about his remarks on the same day, President Bush said that “we will continue to make it clear to both Syria and Iran that… meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq is not in their interest.” However, also on the same day the deputy commander of the US Central Command, Gen Lance Smith, said that the extent of either country’s activities in Iraq was unclear because “our intelligence functions on that side of the border are very, very difficult,” adding that as far as concerns Syria, “it is clear to us that there is still a significant amount of activity going on in Syria as far as financial support and the movement of foreign fighters in and out of Iraq. We don’t think that’s sanctioned by the highest levels of government.” The next day the top US commander in Iraq, Gen George Casey, also stopped short (although not by much) of accusing the Syrian government of involvement when he said that “we have fairly good information that there are senior former Ba'thists” – including former Revolutionary Command Council member 'Izzat Ibrahim – “members of what they call the ‘New Regional Command,’ operating out of Syria with impunity and providing direction and financing to the insurgency in Iraq.” Gen Casey went on to say that “we see a facilitation mode through Syria, foreign fighters coming into Iraq,” adding that “I do not see direct Syrian government involvement in that facilitation, but it is coming through Syria and I do believe they have the capability to stop it if they had the will to stop it.”
Barghuti Withdraws Candidacy
The 12 December announcement that jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghuti is no longer running for the Palestinian presidency makes it a virtual certainty that PLO Chairman Mahmud 'Abbas will succeed Yasir ΄Arafat as president of the Palestinian Authority, come the 9 January elections. And Mr 'Abbas has now openly called for an end to the current violence in the occupied territories, saying on 14 December that “the uprising is a legitimate right of the people to express their rejection of the occupation by popular and social means,” but adding that “the use of arms has been damaging and should end.”
Mr 'Abbas was only stating publicly what he has been advocating privately all along, and he stopped well short of saying that he would confront the various Palestinian groups that see violence as a legitimate response to occupation (such as Hamas, which blew up an Israeli army post in Gaza on 12 December). Nonetheless his remarks appear to have contributed to the current optimism that the death of Yasir 'Arafat has created an opportunity to restart peace negotiations. Even that optimism, though, did not explain why Isrseli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom declared on 15 December that “I wish to convene a second 'Aqaba conference with Europe, the US and international countries that want to back the new Palestinian leadership.” Since Israel has always avoided international conferences like the plague, particularly ones involving the Europeans – it had to be dragooned into attending the 1992 Madrid conference by the US – it is legitimate to wonder whether it has done some kind of U-turn or whether Mr Shalom was speaking out of turn. It soon turned that it was probably the latter, since an official in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s office told Reuters on the same day that “this is not the prime minister’s position.”
Charles Snow