Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 50
13
The Political Scene (13 December 2004)
Iraq’s two largest Shi'a political parties have formed an alliance ahead of next month’s scheduled elections, and Iraqi interim President Ghazi al-Yawar has accused Iran and Syria of interfering in the electoral process. In Israel, the Likud party has opted for a coalition with Labour rather than a fresh election.
Shi'as Form Electoral Alliance
The 9 December announcement of the formation of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) creates a broadly-based political alliance to contest the elections next month centered on the two largest Shi'a parties, Da'wa and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and enjoying the considerable support of the country’s highest Shi'a religious authority, Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani. The 228-strong list of candidates presented to the electoral commission by the UIA also contains parties or individuals representing Iraq’s Sunnis, Kurdish Shi'as, Turkmen and Yazidis. Nonetheless it is predominantly Shi'a, and its composition is interesting on at least two counts: it includes the Iraqi National Congress headed by Ahmad Chalabi, who has apparently succeeded in repositioning himself after his fall from grace with the Americans; and it does not include any party representing radical Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, since Mr Sadr has failed to register a party with the electoral commission. Whether this is a sign of a widening rift between Mr Sadr and the Shi'a mainstream is unclear (individual supporters of Mr Sadr are reportedly among the candidates). But even if Mr Sadr is not on board, Iraq’s Shi'as are now clearly better organized to contest the elections than their main Sunni rivals, who recently asked for the polls to be postponed for six months.
Yawar Accuses Iran And Syria Of Interference
As the ides of January approach in Iraq, interim Iraqi president Ghazi al-Yawar has accused Iran of seeking to influence the outcome of the elections. Speaking in an interview published by the Washington Post on 8 December, Mr Yawar said that “unfortunately, time is proving, and the situation is proving, beyond any doubt that Iran has very obvious interference in our business – a lot of money, a lot of intelligence activities and almost interfering daily…especially in the southeast side of Iraq.” (In a separate interview with the Post on the same day, King 'Abd Allah of Jordan also opined that “it is in Iran’s vested interest to have an Islamic republic of Iraq…and therefore the involvement you’re getting by the Iranians is to achieve a government that is very pro-Iran.”) For good measure, Mr Yawar also accused Syria of harboring insurgent Saddam supporters, saying that “there are people in Syria who are bad guys, who are fugitives of the law and who are Saddam remnants who are trying to bring the vicious dictatorship of Saddam back.” Moreover he repeated this accusation in another interview with CNN on the same day, saying that “I think we’re having insurgents coming from Syria” and that Syria is “offering them a safe haven and a shelter and they are operating from there.” Statements such as these will no doubt be welcomed by administration hawks in Washington eager to blame their misfortunes in Iraq on the Iranians and Syrians. In the process, though, they may blur the essential distinction between the two groups accused of interfering in Iraq: the Iranians, like the Americans but for rather different reasons, want the elections to go ahead on schedule, whereas the insurgents allegedly sponsored by the Syrians emphatically do not.
Likud Opts For Coalition With Labour
In the end, the 3,000-member Central Committee of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s Likud party decided on 9 December that an alliance with the opposition Labour party was preferable to a new election by voting 1,410 to 856 to invite Labour to join a government of national unity which would restore the prime minister’s majority in the 120-seat Knesset. (At present Mr Sharon is supported only by the 40 Likud Knesset members. Labor has 19 seats, and Mr Sharon is reportedly planning to invite United Torah Judaism, an ultra-orthodox religious party, to put the coalition over the top with its 5 seats.) Since Labour has already indicated its willingness to join a unity government, it would appear to be a foregone conclusion that Mr Sharon will be able to restore his parliamentary majority and proceed with his plan for a unilateral “disengagement” from Gaza – after which it will presumably be time to test the sincerity of his claim that he accepts the international “road map” as a blueprint for peace negotiations with the Palestinians and a Palestinian state as a suitable destination.
Charles Snow