Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 47
The Political Scene (22 November 2004)
Iran and the EU three have averted a potential confrontation over the former’s nuclear activities at the 25 November meeting of the IAEA board. The Americans claim to have dealt a heavy blow to the insurgency in Iraq by flattening Falluja.
Iran And The EU Agree On Enrichment Halt
The 14 November announcement that Iran and the UK, France and Germany (known as the E3/EU) have reached an interim agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program involving a halt to Iran’s enrichment activities appears to have defused a potential confrontation with the US when the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meets on 25 November. The agreement states that “Iran reaffirms that… it does not and will not seek to acquire nuclear weapons” and that “to build further confidence, Iran has decided, on a voluntary basis, to continue and extend its suspension to include all enrichment related and reprocessing activities… the IAEA will be notified of this suspension and invited to verify and monitor it.” It adds that “sustaining the suspension, while negotiations on a long-term agreement are under way, will be essential for the continuation of the overall process. In the context of this suspension, the E3/EU and Iran have agreed to begin negotiations with a view to reaching a mutually acceptable agreement on long-term arrangements… A steering committee will meet to launch these negotiations in the first half of December 2004 and will set up working groups on political and security issues.” The Europeans, for their part, “recognize that this suspension is a voluntary confidence building measure and not a legal obligation” and inter alia pledge in return that “once suspension has been verified, the negotiations with the EU on a Trade and Cooperation Agreement will resume. The E3/EU will actively support the opening of Iranian accession negotiations at the World Trade Organization.”
For the moment, therefore, the European “carrot and stick” approach appears to have prevailed over the American “stick and stick” approach to Iran’s alleged program to acquire nuclear weapons, and surprisingly the initial US reaction was not entirely unfavorable. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on 16 November that “this is a useful step. It’s better to have somebody agree to something than not agree to something. But it does not really make a difference until it’s implemented and verified, and that’s what counts.” However, by 18 November the official US position had hardened, with State Department spokesman Adam Ereli saying that as far as the halt to enrichment is concerned, “we’ve been down this road before. The Iranians went off track. The EU are trying to get them back on track. But we are appropriately cautious given past experience.” Meanwhile, outgoing Secretary of State Colin Powell claimed on 17 November that Iran was working on nuclear missiles, saying that “I have seen some information that would suggest they have been actively working on delivery systems… you don’t have a weapon until you can put it in something that can deliver a weapon.” However, coming from someone who told the UN Security Council on 5 February 2003 that he “knew” Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, this claim is not likely to carry much weight internationally. Or, as former chief UN weapons inspector David Kay put it on 18 November, “US intelligence capability to warn – and the Secretary of State’s capability to warn – about weapons programs has been seriously impeded by the false warnings given about Iraq.”
Falluja Secure But Not Safe
The subjugation (not to say destruction) of Falluja has taken considerably longer than the five days originally planned, with fighting continuing in some areas after 11 days as MEES went to press on 19 November. That did not prevent the senior US marine commander in Iraq, Lt Gen John Sattler, from declaring the city secure (but not safe) on 18 November. For the record, Gen Sattler also said that “we feel right now that we have… broken the back of the insurgency,” adding that “this has disrupted them… across the country.”
Charles Snow