Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 46
15
The Political Scene (15 November 2004)
The death of Yasir 'Arafat removes from the scene a man who embodied the Palestinian cause. The American assault on Falluja will no doubt succeed in bringing the city back under government control, but perhaps at the cost of aggravating the insurgency elsewhere in Iraq.
The End Of An Era
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his right-wing constituency have consistently sought to justify their attempts to marginalize Palestinian leader Yasir 'Arafat – who died in Paris on 11 November – by demonizing him in extravagant terms as nothing more than a terrorist. (A typical example of this kind of hyperbole came from Israeli Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, who said on 9 November that “'Arafat was not only the leader of terrorism against Israel, but also the founding father of the terrorism that is running rampant around the world right now, including that of al-Qa'ida.”) But the real reason why the Israelis wanted to wish Mr 'Arafat out of existence was that over the decades he had become the highly visible embodiment of the Palestinian cause. What the Israelis could not forgive about Mr 'Arafat – and what made him a hero to his own people, whatever his flaws – was that he salvaged the Palestinians’ sense of national identity at a time when even the Arab governments would have been glad to consign it to oblivion. Worse still, at least from the point of view of the Israeli right wing, having propelled the Palestinians’ search for national expression to center stage internationally, he then persuaded his mainstream constituency to accept a two-state solution. Given the present desperate situation in the occupied territories, it may be difficult to recall that not so long ago there was a real possibility that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be resolved peacefully. But there was, and it was in large measure due to Yasir 'Arafat.
An assessment of Mr 'Arafat’s role and legacy can safely be left to historians (although not to Israeli ones). What matters now is the impact his death is likely to have on the regional and international political scene. Initially, at least, it appears that he will be replaced at home by a collective leadership as the various posts he held are distributed amongst his senior contemporaries. In accordance with the constitution, he has already been succeeded as temporary president of the Palestinian Authority by parliament speaker Rawhi Fattuh, who will organize presidential elections within 60 days. Former prime minister Mahmud 'Abbas has been elected to head the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). And the leadership of Mr 'Arafat’s own Fatah group – along with the Islamic group Hamas the center of gravity of the Palestinian movement – has gone to a relative hardliner, Faruq Qaddumi. (Mr Qaddumi, who rejected the Oslo agreements and has remained in exile in Tunis, said on 11 November that “I’m ready for there to be political talks, but if they go astray then we will continue carrying the rifle, and that’s been clear since 1974.”) The current prime minister, Ahmad Qurai', remains in his position and is reportedly now expected to take greater responsibility for supervising the various security services.
Internationally, the question on everyone’s mind was of course whether Mr 'Arafat’s departure can somehow serve to resuscitate the peace process, presumably by breathing new life into the international “road map.” Certainly if pious good wishes from the White House were enough it would, since President Bush issued a statement on 11 November saying that “we hope that the future will bring peace and the fulfillment of the aspirations for an independent democratic Palestine that is at peace with its neighbors. During the period of transition that is ahead, we urge all in the region and throughout the world to join in helping to make progress toward these goals and toward the ultimate goal of peace.” Even in the Middle East, though, it takes two to tango, and it might be thought that the Israelis, having spent the last three years portraying Mr 'Arafat as the main, if not sole, obstacle to peace had been left in a somewhat awkward position by his departure and that Mr Sharon might now have to come up with some new excuse for refusing to talk to the Palestinians. However, the initial indications are that the old excuse will serve just as well. Mr Sharon said on 11 November that Israel will “continue its efforts to reach a peace settlement with the Palestinians without delay,” but added the familiar caveat that “progress in relations with Israel and solutions to problems must come first and foremost through a war on terrorism.”
US Takes On Falluja
There was little reason to doubt that the assault on Falluja by Iraqi and American forces that began on 8 November would succeed in clearing out the insurgents and subjugating the city by the target date of 13 November. The problem is that, while the interim government of Prime Minister Ayad 'Allawi clearly cannot afford to leave Falluja in the hands of the rebels, reestablishing government/coalition control of the city by force will do little to deter the insurgency elsewhere in the Sunni heartland and may even exacerbate it. Indeed, reports indicate that in response to the American assault on Falluja, there was an upsurge in attacks by insurgents elsewhere in the Sunni triangle in Ba'quba, Ramadi, Tikrit and parts of Baghdad. Moreover, ominously for the coalition, after a curfew was imposed on 10 November in Iraq’s third largest city, Mosul, police stations there were attacked and sacked the next day and armed men were reported to be roaming the streets, forcing the Americans to intervene. (As a statement from the American military put it, “insurgent forces attacked several police stations and other targets within the city. In several cases, anti-Iraqi forces exceeded the capabilities of the police on site, requiring reinforcements.”) Mr 'Allawi had meanwhile proclaimed a 60-day nationwide state of emergency on 7 November and followed this up on 9 November by imposing the first night-time curfew in Baghdad since the fifties. So while the assault on Falluja will no doubt succeed in the end (and will no doubt be portrayed by the Americans as a telling blow against the insurgents), as the start of a campaign to restore security throughout the country prior to the elections scheduled in January it is somewhat less than totally convincing.
Charles Snow