Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 45
8
The Political Scene (8 November 2004)
The prospect of another four years of the Bush administration has cast a pall of gloom across the region and prompted the Europeans to deny that the US now intends to go after Iran.
Region Apprehensive As Bush Wins
For American liberals, the reelection of President George Bush is a setback that will presumably be rectified at some point in the future when the domestic political pendulum swings the other way. For the Arabs, however, it threatens to have more permanent and damaging consequences. It was not as if they had any great expectations about Mr Kerry as far as the Arab-Israeli conflict is concerned – Mr Kerry has been as profuse as Mr Bush in proclaiming his unquestioning support for Israel. But he did at least promise to consult with America’s allies, who would presumably have been a moderating influence on the confrontational approach to the region favored by Mr Bush. Now the fear is that Mr Bush’s reelection will be interpreted by neoconservative hawks in Washington as an endorsement of his regional policy and a call for even more of the same. In other words, more not-so-benign neglect of the peace process while Ariel Sharon outflanks the international road map with his unilateral disengagement from Gaza; a continued campaign to drive Syria out of Lebanon (and very possibly to change the regime in Damascus); and an open-ended confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program that many in the region now fear will escalate drastically. It was little wonder, therefore, that by and large the regional reaction to Mr Bush’s victory went beyond dismay to border on apprehension. After all, the first four years of the second Bush administration has produced an occupied Iraq on the brink of anarchy, a peace process that has gone nowhere and has nowhere to go, and an Arab and Muslim world seething with resentment of the US as never before. There is little comfort to be derived from contemplating what the region might look like after another four years of such mismanagement.
Straw: US Action Against Iran “Inconceivable”
Fears that the US might be contemplating military action against Iran are not confined to the Middle East, since British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw went out of his way on 4 November to describe the possibility of such action as “inconceivable” and to emphasize that “the US government have operated internationally and with international cooperation in respect of Iran.” He added that “I don’t see any circumstances in which military action would be justified against Iran full stop.” Speaking for the EU presidency, Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot sounded a little less certain about US intentions on the same day when he said that “not all people in Washington” endorse the idea of attacking Iran and that “I don’t think we’re thinking of military strikes. I think that would be counter productive.” In fact there are at least two practical reasons why the Americans may not be considering such a course of action any time soon. One is that militarily they already have their hands full in Afghanistan and Iraq. The other is that they will be seeking Iran’s cooperation in stabilizing Iraq at the international conference they are convening later this month in Sharm al-Shaikh. But of course they might not protest too strongly if the Israelis – to whom they have recently sent bunker-busting bombs – were to launch an attack on Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons sites.
Charles Snow