Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 44
1
The Political Scene (1 November 2004)
Iran’s response to the EU’s proposal to resolve its stand-off with the IAEA has been equivocal. The Israeli Knesset has approved Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to disengage from Gaza.
Iran Equivocates
Iran has responded to the proposal put forward last week by the UK, Germany and France to resolve the stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over its nuclear program with equivocations which will surely be seen in Washington as playing for time. These focused mainly on the appropriate adjective to apply to any halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said on 24 October that “the European proposal is their preliminary proposition and is not definitive, but it is unbalanced… In their proposal, the Europeans sought the suspension of enrichment until a comprehensive deal is reached. During the negotiations there is no question of an unlimited suspension.” The next day, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Hasan Rowhani, said exactly the opposite: “The European proposal for an unlimited suspension of uranium enrichment can be implemented, provided it does not contradict the Islamic republic’s criteria.” He added, however, that “unlimited does not mean permanent. The Europeans are talking about an unlimited suspension during the negotiations as it is foreseen that long-term negotiations are starting with the Europeans. They say for example that if the negotiations last seven months, Iran must respect the suspension. We have always said that if the Islamic Republic agrees to suspension to whatever extent, it will be a voluntary decision because no country can force another to stop having peaceful and legal nuclear technology.” After talks with the IAEA resumed in Vienna on 27 October, Iranian negotiator Hossein Mousavian declared that “we told the Europeans that cessation of uranium enrichment is non-negotiable, but regarding suspension the time limit should be clarified. We are not going to accept a 5-year or 10-year suspension,” but added that “regarding the suspension as a confidence-building measure, we have not given our final answer yet.” However, on the same day Iran’s supreme authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that “suspension of enrichment is an illogical demand” and that “I am telling those who are in talks with Iran’s representatives to avoid illogical demands...because in that case the Iranian nation and the Islamic system will abandon the talks."
Knesset Approves Gaza Disengagement
After a two day debate, Israel’s Knesset on 26 October approved by 67 votes to 45 with seven abstentions Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to “disengage” unilaterally from Gaza. In Washington, White House spokesman Trent Duffy declared that “we are pleased with this show of support…this disengagement plan has the potential of being historic and we see it as an important step in fulfilling President Bush’s vision of two states living side by side in peace and security.” Over at the State Department spokesman Adam Ereli similarly said that “Israeli disengagement from Gaza… has the potential to move both parties closer to a realization of the president’s two-state vision,” but wisely added the proviso “if done in a way consistent with the road map and with the support of the international community.”
Charles Snow