Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 43
The Political Scene (25 October 2004)
The Americans are pursuing their vendettas with Syria (over Lebanon) and Iran (over nuclear activities) while seeking to enlist Syrian and Iranian cooperation in stabilizing Iraq.
Annan To Report Every Six Months On Lebanon
Continuing their campaign to evict the Syrians from Lebanon, France and the US on 19 October persuaded the Security Council to approve unanimously a statement urging Syria to comply with Resolution 1559 of 2 September – which demands that “foreign forces withdraw without delay from Lebanon” – and calling on Secretary-General Kofi Annan to report every six months on the implementation of the resolution. Deputy US ambassador Anne Patterson described herself as “quite pleased” with the decision, which she said “will keep Syria’s feet to the fire on complying with the requirements of the resolution… not to interfere with Lebanon’s internal political processes and to get the Syrian troops out of Lebanon.” By the same token, the Syrians and their Lebanese allies were anything but pleased at the prospect of the issue being raised automatically every six months, with Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara' stating on 19 October that “our position remains as it was. We think 1559 is illegal intervention in Syrian-Lebanese bilateral relations.”
It was at this juncture, on 20 October, that Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri chose to react to the reelection of his political rival Emile Lahoud for a further three-year term as president in early September – a move that required the amendment of the constitution – by resigning. The next day, Mr Lahoud, a supporter of Syria’s role in Lebanon, appointed the equally pro-Syrian 'Umar Karami to replace Mr Hariri until parliamentary elections in May. That did not deter State Department spokesman Richard Boucher from warning sternly on 20 October that “we would note that this political step still takes place against a context that is seriously distorted by Syrian interference in Lebanon. Leave it to the Lebanese to work out the political implications and factors involved. Selection of the cabinet and all matters affecting the Lebanese Government should be the result of a purely Lebanese process. We would hope that this matter… would be left entirely to the Lebanese to work out through their own political process without any interference.”
Europeans Make Iran An Offer
In an attempt to avert a potential confrontation between the US and Iran in the Security Council over the latter’s nuclear activities, France, Germany and Britain on 21 October presented the Iranians with a carrot-and-stick offer at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna. In exchange for Tehran agreeing to suspend all uranium enrichment activities and abandon plans for a heavy-water research reactor, the Europeans are offering to support the acquisition by Iran of a light-water research reactor, to resume negotiations on an EU trade and cooperation agreement, and to help on a range of political and security issues. However, if Iran refuses to carry out a full and verified suspension of uranium enrichment, the three European countries will join the US in calling for the matter to be referred to the Security Council for possible sanctions when the IAEA reviews Iran’s nuclear program on 25 November. The Americans, who are convinced that the Iranians are merely playing for time in the negotiations over their nuclear program, made it clear that they did not support the European initiative, with Mr Boucher saying on 20 October that “we haven’t bought on, signed on or endorsed it, but we know they’re going to do it.” Nonetheless, the European offer appeared to be a step towards the denouement of the entire Iranian nuclear saga one way or the other, although not necessarily in the immediate future. Iranian official Sirus Naseri told reporters in Vienna after the meeting that “we are at an initial stage, matters have to be considered on both sides. I think we’ll get together in a matter of a few days.”
Iraq Conference Plans
While the Americans are belaboring Iran for its nuclear program and holding Syria’s feet to the fire over Lebanon, they are at the same time seeking Syrian and Iranian cooperation in stabilizing Iraq by way of the proposed international conference, which is now scheduled to be held in Sharm al-Shaikh on 22-23 November and is beginning to shape up as one of the more interesting (not to say bizarre) results of the American adventure in Iraq. The conference is to be attended at foreign minister level by Iraq’s neighbors (Syria, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan), the EU, UN, Arab League, Organization of the Islamic Conference, G8 and China, and according to US assistant Secretary of State William Burns on 20 October will focus “on providing support for the Iraqi political process, and specially for the elections at the end of January, for economic recovery, as well as on security in Iraq. Those are all areas in which Iraq, its neighbors and the international community have a deep stake. We see that as the focus of the conference.” However, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, speaking on the same day, had somewhat different priorities: “We will ask conference participants for help and cooperation on helping us build Iraqi military and security capabilities. We will ask participating states to back the election process and help the Iraqi people and government ensure a political climate that is suitable and positive and encourage all Iraqi sides to participate in the political process.” Mr Zebari may want to encourage as many Iraqi parties as possible to join the political process, but he made it clear that does not mean they are welcome at Sharm al-Shaikh, saying that “it is an official conference between foreign governments and international agencies. There will not be any Iraqi political parties nor organizations.” Mr Burns, who was in Cairo, also suggested that only the interim government would be invited, saying on 20 October that “our understanding in our consultations with the Egyptians today as well as in the past few days when I was in Baghdad is that this is a meeting of government representatives.” But a spokesman for President Husni Mubarak, Majid ΄Abd al-Fattah, differed with Mr Burns and Mr Zebari, saying “there has not been a final decision yet on this issue. Egypt wants to reach an adequate formula for all the Iraqi parties involved to express their views at the conference.”
Charles Snow