Middle East Economic Survey

 

VOL. XLVII

No 37

13-September-2004

 

The Political Scene (13 September 2004)

 

The Syrians have got their way in Lebanon yet again, and the Americans are not happy. Both President Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have designated the conflict in Darfur as genocide.

 

Lahoud Wins Three Year Extension

The UN Security Council may have passed a resolution on 2 September declaring that Lebanon’s presidential election should be “free and fair…according to Lebanese constitutional rules devised without foreign interference or influence,” but that did not prevent the Lebanese parliament from approving the next day a constitutional amendment extending pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud’s term in office for another three years (from 24 November) by 96 votes to 29 with three abstentions. Predictably, this did not go down at all well in Washington, where State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on the same day that Syrian pressure on Lebanon “makes a mockery of democratic principles,” adding that “we would hope the Lebanese parliament, the Lebanese cabinet would take this into account, but more importantly, we would hope they would be free to make decisions that reflect the will of the Lebanese people without undue interference or influence from outside parties. It’s clear the Lebanese parliamentarians have been pressured and even threatened by Syria and its agents to make them comply.” The next day White House spokesman Scott McClellan apparently forgot that the US is no slouch itself when it comes to occupying Arab countries when he complained that “this was not a victory for Lebanese democracy. The vote does not reflect the will of the Lebanese people. It was forced upon them by an occupying force.”

 

Officially, both the Lebanese and the Syrians rejected the UN’s action as unwarranted interference, with Syrian Information Minister Ahmad al-Hassane describing the resolution on 4 September as “interference in Syria and Lebanon’s internal affairs and an attack on fraternal relations between the two countries” and Lebanese Foreign Minister Jean Obeid declaring that “Lebanon will not accept any plan which does not address the Israeli occupation of its land and is replaced by interference in its internal affairs.” Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara' even suggested on 7 September that “Syria and Lebanon will in the future open up more and will increasingly reinforce and consolidate their relations.” Nonetheless, Mr Lahoud’s reelection did not pass off entirely smoothly: on 6 September four members of the cabinet (three Druze ministers and one Christian) resigned in protest. And for whatever reasons, Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri – who voted in favor of the constitutional amendment despite his initial opposition to it – indicated on 9 September that a change of government is in the offing in Lebanon when he said that “the last meeting of this cabinet will be on the 20th of this month, and after that the change.”

 

“Genocide” In Darfur

Both President Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have now formally described the conflict in the western Sudanese province of Darfur as genocide against African villagers by Arab Janjaweed militiamen. Mr Bush said on 9 September that “we have concluded that genocide has taken place in Darfur. Only outside action can stop the killing,” while on the same day Mr Powell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that “we concluded that genocide has been committed in Darfur and that the government of Sudan and the Janjaweed bear responsibility and genocide may still be occurring.” The next day, Sudanese Foreign Minister Mustafa 'Uthman 'Isma'il dismissed these declarations as electoral ploys on 10 September, saying “we know that an election is going on. We know the political parties, the Republicans and Democrats, are competing for the votes of African Americans…they should not use a humanitarian problem for political agenda.” However, even if Mr Bush and Mr Powell were motivated by electoral considerations, these could have practical consequences in the form of a resolution tabled in the Security Council by the Americans on 8 September which, potentially at least, threatens to impose sanctions on Sudan.

 

Charles Snow