Middle East Economic Survey
VOL. XLVII
No 36
The Political Scene (6 September 2004)
The Lebanese cabinet has endorsed the idea of changing the constitution to allow President Emile Lahoud – known to be Syria’s candidate – to run for a further three-year term, and the Americans (and French) do not like it. To underline their point they tabled a UN Security Resolution calling for respect of Lebanon’s sovereignty that was narrowly adopted a few days later. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has outlined an accelerated time table for his proposed disengagement from Gaza.
Cabinet Approves Second Term For Lahoud
In a move universally seen as reflecting Syria’s wishes, the Lebanese cabinet on 28 August approved a bill to change the constitution to allow President Emile Lahoud to stand for reelection for a further three years when his current six-year term in office ends on 24 November. The bill will now be debated in Lebanon’s parliament on 10 September, where it must be passed by a majority of two-thirds of the 128 deputies. However, in accommodating the Syrians, the Lebanese have provided one of the rare occasions when the French and the Americans are actually able to agree on something in the Middle East – the Americans because they dislike the Syrians and all their works and the French because (presumably) of their historic mission civilisatrice in the Levant. According to an unnamed “senior State Department official” on 30 August, “we are discussing with the French a possible resolution of the Security Council that would stand up for Lebanon’s right to decide its own fate without outside interference.” (The official did not say how France and the US are proposing to go about this task, but State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on 31 August that “at this point we are discussing what elements a possible resolution might contain.”) These remarks in turn caused the Lebanese Foreign Ministry to accuse the Americans and French themselves of interfering in the country’s internal affairs in a letter to the UN on 31 August which said that “no outside authority has a right to interfere in the details of agreements between Syria and Lebanon, or to impose changes on them. The attempt by some countries to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs under the pretext of respecting the constitution on the occasion of the presidential election conceals a political intent.”
Narrow UN Vote
Despite Lebanese objections, the Security Council on 2 September adopted a resolution – passed by the narrowest possible margin of 9-0 with six abstentions – reaffirming “its call for the strict respect of Lebanon’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity and political independence under the sole and exclusive authority of the government of Lebanon throughout Lebanon.” The resolution had been amended to from its original version to ensure its passage. A demand that “Syrian forces withdraw without delay from Lebanon” was changed to one that “foreign forces withdraw without delay from Lebanon.” Given the nature of the final watered-down version of the resolution, the narrow vote and the lack of any follow-up mechanism, it is hard to see how the US and France will now pursue their campaign against Syria’s involvement in Lebanon.
Sharon’s Timetable For Disengagement
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has announced a new and accelerated timetable for his proposed unilateral disengagement from Gaza. Speaking on 31 August, he said that he would present the main legal provisions of the plan to his security cabinet on 14 September and the full details of the plan to the whole cabinet on 26 September. The cabinet would then be expected to vote on the plan on 24 October, after which, according to Mr Sharon, “I expect that on 3 November the law will be adopted by parliament” – and after that, “this plan will be applied, and that’s it.” Mr Sharon makes it sound as if the passage and implementation of his plan is a foregone conclusion, which it of course is not. For one thing, as things stand now he probably cannot muster the necessary majority in the 120-seat Knesset. For another, the hardliners of the Central Committee of his own Likud party in mid-August implicitly rejected the idea of a withdrawal from Gaza when they voted down his proposal to form a coalition with the opposition Labour party in order to secure such a majority.
Charles Snow